Evaluating Aaron Rodgers’ holdout to Carson Palmer and the Bengals in 2011

How far will Aaron Rodgers’ holdout go? 

Rodgers didn’t attend Inexperienced Bay’s three-day minicamp this week, which implies the three-time MVP is taken into account a holdout. This can price Rodgers lower than $100,000 in fines until the Packers waive these prices. 

Now, the following date to look at is July 27. That is when the Packers open obligatory coaching camp forward of the 2021 NFL season. If Rodgers nonetheless is holding out at that time, then the rift with Inexperienced Bay president Mark Murphy and normal supervisor Brian Gutekunst may attain a tipping level. It could be the most notable holdout since Emmitt Smith with the Cowboys in 1993. 

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That is completely different, nonetheless. Rodgers is a quarterback. The final quarterback to take a seat out a full season was Kelly Stouffer, who couldn’t conform to a contract with the Cardinals after being chosen within the first spherical in 1987. Once more, although, this is not the identical state of affairs.

However there are parallels with the rift former No. 1 decide Carson Palmer had with the Bengals in 2011. Palmer was ultimately traded to Oakland throughout the season, however not till after a messy divorce with the Bengals. And sure, Rodgers’ agent Dave Dunn was additionally Palmer’s agent. 

Will Rodgers and the Packers come to the identical conclusion? Maybe. However there are main variations between the 2 holdouts, and people must be addressed. 

State of the franchise 

The Bengals completed 4-12 in Palmer’s seventh season in 2010, and he completed with 3,970 yards, 26 TDs and 20 interceptions. “Palmer had a gathering with Bengals proprietor Mike Brown to request for a separation from the crew, coupled with a menace to retire if that demand was not met,” Cincinnati.com reported in January 2011.

A decade later, Rodgers addressed his future after the Packers misplaced the second of back-to-back NFC championship video games to Tampa Bay on Jan. 19, 2020. He known as his state of affairs with the Packers a “lovely thriller,” which continued the continuing hypothesis about his future in Inexperienced Bay regardless of a 26-6 regular-season file with Matt LaFleur as head coach. 

Is that this completely different? Sure and no. Inexperienced Bay is a Tremendous Bowl-caliber crew, and Rodgers has saved them within the hunt for 16 seasons. Palmer and the Bengals had been an up-and-down crew that didn’t advance previous the AFC Wild Card spherical. However clearly the problems that led to the discontent of each quarterbacks did not occur in a single day. 

The following quarterback

Palmer’s calls for led Cincinnati to draft Andy Dalton with the No. 35 decide within the 2011 NFL Draft. Dalton led TCU to a 13-0 file that included a Mountain West Convention championship and a Rose Bowl victory towards Wisconsin the earlier season. He served as an insurance coverage coverage of types in case Palmer wouldn’t return.

The Packers already created their downside by buying and selling as much as draft Jordan Love with the No. 26 decide within the 2020 NFL Draft. Love additionally performed within the Mountain West Convention at Utah State. He led the Aggies to an 11-2 file in 2018, however that file dipped to 7-6 with a brand new teaching employees the next season. Inexperienced Bay drafted Love as a substitute of including one other extra fast piece to a returning NFC championship crew. 

Is that this completely different? Sure. Cincinnati made the transfer as a response to Palmer’s discontent. Inexperienced Bay created the discontent by buying and selling up so as to add a quarterback to a roster that was ready-made to contend for a Tremendous Bowl. That opened the door for criticism that hasn’t stopped since. 

Commerce talks

In accordance with Cincinnati.com, experiences that Palmer mentioned he would by no means step foot in Paul Brown Stadium surfaced in March. Bengals proprietor Mike Brown publicly mentioned after the NFL lockout that offseason that Palmer wouldn’t be traded. Brown doubled down at coaching camp in July, telling reporters, “I want him effectively and he has retired. That’s his selection.” Brown adopted via on that, and the crew positioned Palmer on the “didn’t report” checklist forward of the 2011 season. 

Rodgers has circuitously mentioned he wouldn’t play for the Packers in 2021, however ESPN insider Adam Schefter’s report that the quarterback is disgruntled and desires out overshadowed the primary spherical of the 2021 NFL Draft on April 29. Murphy and Gutekunst have repeatedly expressed that Rodgers is not going to be traded forward of the 2021 season, however the state of affairs is beginning to resemble Brett Favre’s exit from Inexperienced Bay in 2008. Favre was traded to the Jets that season.

Now, the query turns into whether or not Rodgers experiences for coaching camp in July. That would be the focus over the following six weeks. 

Is that this completely different? The conditions are comparable, even when Rodgers hasn’t publicly requested for a commerce. Each quarterbacks play for old-school possession, and Inexperienced Bay may comply with the identical path as Cincinnati if there isn’t a fence-mending with Rodgers. 

The common season

The Bengals opened the 2011 season with a 4-2 file via the bye week with Dalton at quarterback, and that prompted Brown to commerce Palmer to the Raiders on Oct. 18, 2011. Cincinnati went on to a 9-7 file and reached the AFC Wild Card spherical. 

That is the potential subsequent step for the Packers if Rodgers’ holdout stretches into the season. Love could be the potential Week 1 starter towards New Orleans regardless of not taking a snap in 2020. That’s a dangerous transfer contemplating that a lot of the Packers’ roster from these previous two NFC championship runs stays on board. If Rodgers’ holdout drags on via coaching camp, it is going to get extra consideration than the circus with Favre in 2008. 

Is that this completely different? The worst-case state of affairs for the Packers may very well be catastrophic. The franchise would watch back-to-back Corridor of Fame quarterbacks depart in unceremonious vogue, and Rodgers’ state of affairs already has divided the fan base in the same approach. As a result of Palmer had not performed effectively in 2020, it was simpler for Cincinnati followers to show towards Dalton. Love would face far more stress in Inexperienced Bay if he’s the starter, which isn’t a certain factor at this level given the dearth of expertise. 

Lengthy-term implications

Dalton had a 70-61-2 file in 9 seasons with the Bengals, and he led the franchise to 5 playoff appearances. Cincinnati didn’t win any of these video games, and the franchise moved on final season by drafting Joe Burrow with the No. 1 decide. Palmer had a 44-37-1 file in seven seasons with Oakland and Arizona after leaving Cincinnati, and his lone postseason victory for his profession got here towards the Packers in 2016. 

The Packers could be banking on yet one more stroke of luck. Rodgers’ first season was bumpy as a starter, however he turned out to be a extra environment friendly Favre. That’s led to a 12-9 postseason file and a Tremendous Bowl 45 victory. Love could be tasked with dwelling as much as not possible expectations, however the identical will probably be true of whoever takes the snaps after Rodgers leaves Inexperienced Bay, which seems to be like it is going to occur even when it’s not throughout the 2020 season. 

Is that this completely different? The parallels with the Palmer state of affairs are there, particularly if Rodgers holds out, however the stakes are a lot larger in Inexperienced Bay. The Packers’ state of affairs stays TBD, and July will probably be very attention-grabbing if Rodgers doesn’t present up.

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